Damned if They Do...
More from Noam Scheiber:Whereas the conventional wisdom up to this point more or less held that another attack would aide Bush's reelection (though that CW took a bit of a hit after the attacks in Spain), wouldn't the practical effect of the Clarke book and the 9/11 commission hearings be to make Bush extremely vulnerable politically in that scenario? It would very quickly connect the current abstract criticism [Richard Clarke's book, the 9/11 commission] to first-hand experience ...This is new. The CW generally says that, while Kerry has a chance if there are no further terrorist acts on US soil, after a strike here everyone will rally around the President in an acute outbreak of patriotism. I've said similar things myself: "If there's a terrorist attack between now and November, we might as well nominate Al Sharpton just for the laugh value."
The flip side of this is the assumption that Kerry has a chance if there are no more terrorist attacks and the economy continues to spiral. That is disputed--The L.A. Times's Ron Brownstien has argued against this. But the general wisdom that in case of a terrorist attack Bush wins has remained relatively unchallenged.
Until now.
Listen: Scheiber is arguing in his blog, and people can get in trouble for things on your blog, as Greg Easterbrook did earlier this year. Unlike Easterbrook, Scheiber isn't going to have to apologize to the ADL or beg Michael Eisner not to destroy his career. But this is one of those half baked ideas that seem to make their way into the blogosphere; similar to when I suggested that we should make Jack Welch president last month.
Bottom line, the conventional wisdom is right on this one. We now have some distance from 9/11, and people are ready to consider what might have gone wrong. If there is another attack, it will prompt some people to accuse Bush (accurately) of not doing enough to beef up homeland security; but the majority of people out there will knee-jerk to his side. Bush is very good at looking presidential, at talking about how great America is, and implying that there will be divine vengeance for those who cause us to suffer. It's not an argument that makes much sense; but it's a comforting one. And after something terrible happens, people are happy with what Kurt Vonnegut used to call "comforting lies."
