My New Cynicism
Here's Noam Scheiber, on why Bush is showing good polling numbers despite bad news from, well, everywhere:I don't share Scheiber's optimism. My own hunch is that a lot of American's harbored doubts about 'nam from day one, but only made a firm decision that the war was a mistake after the Tet offensive. While it is certainly possible that a lot of people harbor doubts about Iraq, I don't think any amount of news will change the minds of the people who supported this from the beginning: we're a very stubborn people. And there are a lot of people who ardently support the president in this misguided endeavor. I don't see Bush being hit by the drop in the polls Scheiber predicts. This election will be very, very, very close, and having to chose between Bush and Kerry is very, very, very sad.Dana Milbank hinted at an explanation in yesterday's Washington Post, in a piece about how Bush relies on "skillful use of languages and images" to keep the public behind the war effort. Reading the piece, you realize pretty quickly that what Milbank means by "skillful use" is really "dishonest use"--he lists several examples of the Bush administration shading the truth on Iraq, including the claim that the uprising there is the work of a "violent few," that a broad coalition of "other nations" are committed to our mission there, and that Saddam had ties to Al Qaeda. Milbank concludes with a quote from Duke University political scientist (and former Clinton NSC official) Peter Feaver, who argues that, "The rhetoric has to match the reality in Iraq, and if the situation on the ground deteriorates, then the administration will face an increasingly Herculean task keeping public support strong."
I think this is exactly right. The reason we're likely to get this critical-mass effect is that Americans tend to accept the claims of an administration at face value for a while. It's only after a military situation deteriorates to the point where the optimistic claims are so obviously out of line with what's happening on the ground--and we still haven't reached that point--that people are likely to reject the administration's line.
