Inappropriate Content: SALT-III

As we continue to feel out the long term effects of what I'm calling the Senate Arms Limitation Treaty, and what most of the chattering class is calling simply "the Deal," Republicans close to the GOP leadership continue to talk about breaking out the nuclear option regardless.

Republicans threatened to immediately invoke what some have called the nuclear option - doing away with the filibuster against judicial candidates - if Democrats tried to block any nominee except in the most extreme cases.

"This is merely a truce; it's not a treaty yet," said Senator Orrin G. Hatch, Republican of Utah and a senior member of the Judiciary Committee.

That's The New York Times. Well, a shout out to Stormin' Orrin for bravely opposing statesmanship at every turn.

That said, I think it's a mistake to frame this as a capitulation by Democrats. Certainly there's some merit to that analysis; the Democratic parties to the Deal are allowing some people to become federal judges who should not be allowed to become federal judges. But politics is a dirty business, and they're are gains to be made—very serious gains.

Look: Let's say that Bush nominates, say, Roy Cohn to become the next Supreme Court Justice. Democrats then attempt to filibuster the nomination. Of course Frist immediately starts screaming that the Dems promised not to filibuster any nominees. The Democrats point out that Cohn (a) used to be Joe McCarthy's right hand man, (b) is a closeted homosexual, and (c) died in 1986. Frist tells the Democrats to stop being such homophobes and calls a vote on the nuclear option. One of two things happens:

John McCain and his band of merry men deny Frist the votes he needs. Frist is humiliated and probably loses his job. Tom Minnery, Focus on Family's VP of public policy, who recently accused McCain of being "squirrelly," accuses him of being something worse.
Frist gets the votes he needs, and Roy Cohn becomes Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. Frist gets the GOP nomination for President in 2008—and loses. Phyllis Schlafly is stunned that so many Americans are upset that a dead McCarthyite homosexual is Chief Justice. Simply stunned.

The New York Times has a piece on the McCain/Frist race for the 2008 nomination:

In a sign of the complications Dr. Frist faces in trying to balance running the Senate as he prepares to run for president in 2008, two conservative Republican senators who are also talking about running immediately attacked the agreement. Dr. Frist, of Tennessee, had promised conservatives that he could pass the measure to prohibit Democrats from using filibusters to stop votes on judicial nominations.

At the same time, Mr. McCain's role in brokering the compromise may have severely ruptured his already strained relations with the party's conservative bloc, a group that is critical to winning the presidential nomination, conservatives and some of Mr. McCain's supporters said.

The Deal has plenty of downside for the Democrats. But it's implications for the Republicans are far more important. Stay tuned...