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Thursday, May 13, 2004

How I Live Now



Perhaps it's a momentary lapse, but I'm feeling optimistic about the election. I think Bush is gone. The Charleston Gazette ran a poll today showing West Virginians prefer Bush 47% to 43%, with 8% undecided. Which still looks at Bush for the winner, but historically, undecided voters swing mostly for the challenger, as Mark Mellman shows. Consider, too, that Bush pere had better approval ratings than his son does at this point in the election cycle. Right now, Bush is at about the level Gerald Ford was at.

More encouraging numbers come from Mark Gersh in Blueprint Magazine. He has some excellent electoral tallies. I'll hotlink them below. Ticking off his battleground states, Minnesota (too libertarian for Bush), Missouri (too much job loss), Arizona (libertarian, plus McCain), and Wisconsin (I have no idea about Wisconsin). Then there's Pennsylvania, Florida, and Ohio: the Kirk, Spock and McCoy of this election. Gersh has good analysis of these states (and surprisingly unbiased for a magazine published by the DNC, too).

My instincts, at this point, say Bush loses. And the world isn't completely hopeless, yet. (Maybe.)