More Demographics? Must You?

I'm afraid I must.

The new CBS News poll. At a glance, Bush is, to put it delicately, fucked.

"If the election were today" Kerry would win 49%-41%. With Nader included, he still wins, 47%-41%-5%. Nader is taking only two or three percent from republicans and democrats, but he's polling at 10% among independents. I think that's just a reflection of the number of respondents who were just giving freaky answers because they hate CBS, reasonably. All polls take this into account, or did you think the 'margin of error' had something to do with higher statistical mathematics? Silly rabbit.

Anyway, we're eating more beets. I mean, we're pessimists now. 65% think "things in this country...have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track." That's a jump of 10% from last month's poll. 91% of Democrats and 68% of independents are concerned. This suggests that maybe Dean's righteous anger thing wouldn't be a complete failure, come November; at least if Kerry tosses a little of it into his stump speeches, like well-measured tobasco on an omelet.

Final notes: only 49% of us think we "did the right thing" invading Iraq, first time that's below half. And, for those of us predicting, as Andy Sullivan put it, "a massive gay-baiting campaign by Karl Rove this summer," only 2% of voters put gay marriage at the top of their priority list. Gay marriage is the new flag burning: everyone hates it, except no one actually, y'know, cares.

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