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Saturday, October 16, 2004
The Trail©
The latest projections show Bush and Kerry tied in Florida. Those are probably the numbers senior brass ere looking at when they make the final resource allocation policy, which is happening as I type. If I find out that WV staffers are being shuffled to Florida—a distinct possibility—I will be monumentally pissed. Sure, twenty-seven electoral votes is tempting, but Florida is not in play. Period.
Logic: Anyone who thinks political power in Florida can be obtained without massive corruption and the occasional pay-off to coke smugglers hasn't seen Scarface. The positions of power in Florida are all held by Bush partisans. Therefore, Florida is not in play.
Meanwhile, TNR's Ryan Lizza carefully explains that the key to a Kerry victory is, in short, punchy form, "Ohio plus seven." The list of states where KE-04's money should be going is short, and—Ohio excluded—none of them have more than ten electoral votes. New Hampshire, New Jersey, Maine, West Virginia, Nevada, New Mexico. Maybe Colorado.
But this all revolves around winning Ohio. See, the swing states break down like this: Ohio and Pennsylvania have 20 and 21 votes, respectively. Florida has 27. Assuming Bush takes Florida (for the reasons above) and Kerry takes Pennsylvania (low turn out in the backwoods, and Pittsburgh likes Teresa) that leaves Ohio.
So resources need to be going toward Ohio, because if Bush takes Ohio--well, then I go join the peace corps for a few years and skip out on whatever crap is coming down the chute. Anyway, everything I just said is bullshit. There's too much money coming in from the 527's and 501(c)'s, plus all the new registration. Confident predictions about the course of the election are nothing but masturbatory attempts to delude ourselves into thinking we have a handle on a deeply uncertain election.
From me, that results in nothing but a post of less-than-usual quality. When the senior staff of both campaigns try it—well, anything could happen.
Logic: Anyone who thinks political power in Florida can be obtained without massive corruption and the occasional pay-off to coke smugglers hasn't seen Scarface. The positions of power in Florida are all held by Bush partisans. Therefore, Florida is not in play.
Meanwhile, TNR's Ryan Lizza carefully explains that the key to a Kerry victory is, in short, punchy form, "Ohio plus seven." The list of states where KE-04's money should be going is short, and—Ohio excluded—none of them have more than ten electoral votes. New Hampshire, New Jersey, Maine, West Virginia, Nevada, New Mexico. Maybe Colorado.
But this all revolves around winning Ohio. See, the swing states break down like this: Ohio and Pennsylvania have 20 and 21 votes, respectively. Florida has 27. Assuming Bush takes Florida (for the reasons above) and Kerry takes Pennsylvania (low turn out in the backwoods, and Pittsburgh likes Teresa) that leaves Ohio.
So resources need to be going toward Ohio, because if Bush takes Ohio--well, then I go join the peace corps for a few years and skip out on whatever crap is coming down the chute. Anyway, everything I just said is bullshit. There's too much money coming in from the 527's and 501(c)'s, plus all the new registration. Confident predictions about the course of the election are nothing but masturbatory attempts to delude ourselves into thinking we have a handle on a deeply uncertain election.
From me, that results in nothing but a post of less-than-usual quality. When the senior staff of both campaigns try it—well, anything could happen.
hey j'myle, i didnt know u rode horses!, or does that horse ride you. jk- stuart
Posted by@ 5:04 PM
hey j'myle, i didnt know u rode horses!, or does that horse ride you. jk- stuart
Posted by
wtf it posted twice-stuart
Posted by
Interesting break down. Any idea what the polls are like in those states this week?Post a Comment
Posted byThe CO @ 12:51 AM