While I was gone, Quilly wrote an excellent piece dissecting some of the more outrageous anti-Kerry smears. And because he's willing to police his own side, I should talk about some of the stupid things I've seen done by the left.

I spent the morning doing visibility at a very busy stretch of highway, and I witnessed dozens of Kerry supporters nearly get into traffic accidents. From now on, behind our 4' x 8' Kerry-Edwards sign, we're also going to have one that reads, "We appreciate your support; however, please leave at least one hand on the wheel at all times."

The double thumbs-up is a threat to the lives of Americans.

In other news, Ryan Lizza takes note of an AP/Ipsos Poll (subscriber only):

Likely voters...narrowly favor Kerry-Edwards (49%) over Bush-Cheney (46%). If we look at all registered voters, the race is a draw (47% Kerry, 46% Bush).

In the gap between registered voters and likely voters, there is a group of people who voted in 2000 and are very likely to vote this year, but do not have a great deal of interest in following news about the campaign. Because of their lack of interest in campaign news, they are excluded from the likely voter group. However, they are actually more likely to have voted in 2000 than likely voters overall.

These bored voters support Bush (50%) over Kerry (40%). They approve of the job Bush is doing as President (57%), but are generally divided on his performance on specific issues. Demographically they tend to resemble likely voters, although they are somewhat more often evangelical or born-again Christians.

Interesting stuff. If you're a poll geek like me, anyway.

This seems to me to be good news for Kerry. While I think we can safely assume the Bored Voters (BVs) are definitely going to break for Bush, I don't see them being particularly energized this election. That's debatable, of course: you can argue that 9/11 will significantly boost turnout of BVs. I think that Iraq and the economy will act as a drag—not a drag on their support for Bush, but a drag on the likelihood of them simply turning up.

Meanwhile, the group giving Kerry the edge is likely voters. That is, the base. And Kerry's base is incredibly energized this year. In West Virginia, the Kerry volunteer corps substantially outnumber the Bush volunteers. And ours get better support. We've recently shipped some of our field staff to more competitive states, and we still have a much larger operation than the Bushies. (Not that you could tell from BC04's consumption of Bud Light)

To me, that looks like good news for John Kerry. In ten days, we'll know if I'm right.

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